lunes, junio 08, 2009

La victoria (derrota) "autocumplida" del PP (PSOE)


Después de todas las elecciones deberíamos esperar a detallados y fundados análisis demoscópicos, pero, como siempre, es necesario hacer una serie de consideraciones de trazo grueso alrededor de lo sucedido.

Por un lado el PP consigue su ansiada victoria contra Zapatero. Pero la victoria, esperada por todos menos por un CIS amigo del gobierno, es en el marco de una bajísima participación (recordemos que a nivel España una alta participación se traduce históricamente en victorias socialistas) y es sólo por unos 4 puntos de diferencia. Es preciso anteponer el "sólo" por cuanto en las elecciones en que Mayor Oreja y Mariano Rajoy se empeñaron, y empeñarán, en mirarse son las Europeas de 1994. Unas elecciones que supusieron un adelanto de la victoria del PP de Aznar en 1996. Pero es que en esas elecciones, con una participación del 59%, el PP gana por nada menos que 10 puntos (1,7 millones de votos) al PSOE. Y luego, en las Elecciones Generales de 1996 (en plena crisis económica e institucional y con una participación del 77%) el PP ganó por apenas un punto (300000 votos). No hace falta ser un lince para advertir que la victoria del PP de hoy es bastante, bastante, pírrica. Sencillamente es un punto a favor de Rajoy y su apuesta por un tercer asalto a la Moncloa: tercer asalto que ya intentara Aznar en 1996, como se empeña en repetir Rajoy, pero desde una posición emergente bien distinta.

De lo anteriormente dicho podemos afirmar que el PSOE obtiene el resultado que todos más o menos esperaban. Se trata de una derrota descontada (no en vano ahí teníamos de número 3 en las listas socialistas a la ex-ministra, y máxima "derrotable" en el PSOE, "Maleni") desde hace tiempo y que, en el actual escenario económico y recordando lo sucedido en 1994, bien podría haber sido muchísimo peor. El PSOE puede seguir gobernando sin excesivos problemas con el apoyo de una ERC y un BNG con crisis internas que no les permiten ser exigentes o una IU que no está para muchas fiestas. Y en las próximas generales, quien sabe si con una economía en menos favorable a la demagogia del PP ladrillero, bien podría repetirse el patrón de las últimas: llevar el partido a los grandes números, a la oposición frontal de una España a la otra. Escenario en el cual Zapatero sale siempre vencedor y Rajoy, siempre, perdedor. Sin novedad en el frente, por tanto: una derrota que, tras los inevitables entusiasmos derechistas iniciales (fanáticos o impostados), será fácilmente digerible.

IU, todavía la tercera fuerza de España (pero cada vez por menos diferencia), con unos 580000 votos. Sigue inmersa en su ya larga tendencia a la baja en el marco de una pequeña recuperación tras la asunción del mando de la coalición por el comunista Cayo Lara. Es interesante el patrón electoral de IU por cuanto le es, dado su carácter de fuerza de implantación nacional, aplicable a UPyD.

UPyD avanza sin duda hacia ser la tercera fuerza política española pues en muchas provincias adelanta claramente a una IU: en la que el peso del voto a la nacionalista ICV es cada vez mayor. Consigue, dado su carácter emergente, ser la única fuerza en estas Europeas que mejora su resultado de las Generales en un marco de bajísima participación. Si empleamos como guía el funcionamiento del voto a IU, los 450000 votos que consigue UPyD en estas Europeas se traducirían en el marco de unas Generales, con una participación entorno al 70-80%, en alrededor de un millón de votos. La tendencia de UPyD es indiscutiblemente alcista y presumir que este partido, caracterizado por su rechazo del sectarismo y completamente silenciado por la mayoría de los medios, ha recibido el voto de un máximo de electores, es algo absurdo. Porque, al margen de las encuestas del día a día, UPyD, a diferencia de IU, tiene unas perspectivas electorales abiertas. En el contexto de una mayor presencia mediática (inevitable a medida que se gana presencia en sucesivas instituciones) y una mayor participación electoral no hay razón para no pensar en UPyD como clara tercera fuerza política.

Cualquiera que eche un vistazo a la historia de los partidos políticos podrá comprobar que los partidos que sacan resultados espectaculares bien pueden desaparecer de forma igualmente espectacular. En este sentido el crecimiento de UPyD, bajo sordina mediática, me parece un crecimiento de base electoral correcto y, hasta ahora, la labor parlamentaria y el cumplimiento de las promesas electorales está siendo impecable. Y esto rendirá frutos por sí mismo. UPyD es mucho más que la plataforma electoral de los cabreados con otros partidos y cada paso que da hacia la estabilización de su propia organización conjura más el peligro de ser una plataforma inestable pasto de los extremismos o los sectarismos exóticos que mataron a Ciudadanos y quieren matar a UPyD.

Y es que Ciudadanos-Partido de la Ciudadanía, que en estas elecciones salía en coalición con Libertas (cuya política de "fichajes" entre los diversos partidos europeos ha sido, cuanto menos, pestilente), ha certificado en estas elecciones europeas su práctica desaparición. Porque pese a las afirmaciones de Albert Rivera respecto a que la decisión de C's de no presentarse a las autonómicas de Galicia o País Vasco se correspondía a un acto de generosidad, se demuestra sin lugar a dudas que C's obró así porque sencillamente no tiene implantación nacional. Para dar medida de su debacle no sólo se ha de mencionar que en su teórico feudo catalán son doblados por UPyD sino que a nivel nacional sacan 23000 votos y son superados por: "Los Verdes-Grupo Verde Europeo", el "Partido Antitaurino", "IzquierdaAnticapitalista-Revolta Global" y "Por un Mundo + Justo". Un desastre total y que prueba de nuevo la inexorable ley de que el aumento de las coaliciones se relaciona con una disminución más que proporcional en el número de votantes: todo en el marco, por supuesto, de una escandalosa traición de Albert Rivera y los suyos a los principios ideológicos de su partido a cambio de sacarse unas fotos y contar con algo más de dinero para la campaña. Mas no sólo de pan vive el hombre. Significativo que miembros de la lista electoral de C's-Libertas estuviesen toda esta noche electoral felicitándose de la victoria del PP, como si fuese propia.

Un resultado global, por tanto, el de estas Europeas, bastante irrelevante y muy lejos del carácter de "vuelco" o "nacimiento de nueva mayoría" de "profetas autocumplidores" del PP. Y, en el caso de UPyD, un paso más hacia un grado de notoriedad pública que haga impracticable el "bloqueo continental" al que los medios de comunicación le someten: teniendo que apoyarse para difundir su programa en los medios afines al PP que no es de Rajoy...

Como diría el señor Fidalgo: ¡VIVA LA LIBERTAD!



"El gran enemigo de la democracia es la militarización del pensamiento político." Fernando Morán dixit.


PS: la actitud mafiosa y saboteadora de los encargados de Falange en Ferrol se tradujo en 9 votos en Ferrol para esta formación... ¡Si es que no les votaron ni los que arrancaban carteles por ahí!

105 comentarios:

ElSalmantino dijo...

No estoy muy en desacuerdo con el análisis general.
Claro que has dejado lo mejor para el final.

Tanto llorar por el aislamiento mediático de UPyD para acabar con esa muestra de desprecio típica de la casa: y es que, sin el apoyo mediático de tu odiado FJL nunca podríais alcanzar la notoriedad suficiente como para prescindir de él (suponiendo que este argumento estuviese bien planteado, puesto que el apoyo se adquiere, no se busca, salvo que se engañe para conseguirlo, con lo que estaríamos ante la misma mierda, ya sabes).

Afortunadamente Rosa Díez no es una demagoga imperialista reaccionaria como alguno de sus militantes ferrolanos y se sigue caracterizando en su política diaria por tres "ladrillazos" dizque de extrema derecha: defensa de España, de la libertad lingüística y de una política antiterrorista digna de tal nombre.
Justito lo mismo que el hostión ferrolano.

¡Qué poca vergüenza tienes! Claro que los que apoyamos a UPyD no lo hacemos pensando en alguno de sus militantes y, justo por eso, puedes hacer el análisis que haces, so hipócrita.

ISIDORO LAMAS INSUA dijo...

Los medios de comunicación tienen el deber de informar. En España esto no se hace porque éstos siguen criterios sectarios puesto que los fondos y favores vienen de donde vienen.

Los representantes de UPyD estarían tan encantados de conceder entrevistas a COPE como a la SER. Tanto a El Mundo como a El País. A Antena 3 como a TVE. Que sólo accedan a dar una voz a un partido que representa ya a tantos ciudadanos Losantos o Pedro J no se corresponde tanto con su propia bondad o ética profesional como por su interés en eliminar a Rajoy y aupar a Esperanza Aguirre.

Anónimo dijo...

De modo que si restamos a UPyD 1 escaño por la malsana influencia de Losantos y lo ponemos donde debiera estar, la victoria popular habría sido por 3 escaños nada menos, y casi 900.000 votos sobre el PSOE. Y entonces el análisis voluntarista que has hecho quedaría perfectamente refutado.

El dato que se oculta es que en 1 año y poquito, desde las últimas generales, Rajoy el perdedor le ha bailado 8 puntos al PSOE vencedor, Isidoro. De ahí ha de partir un análisis generalista no especializado en UPyD.

Vingomero

ISIDORO LAMAS INSUA dijo...

A Losantos y sus discípulos lo que les faltaba era atribuírse los éxitos de UPyD. Intentaron hace un año atribuírse un posible éxito electoral del PP y cuando perdió culparon a Rajoy exonerándose. No pedían el voto para nuestro partido y sacamos 306000 votos.

Cara duras...

Ruby Marmolejo dijo...

Felicidades por los dos parlamentarios Isidoro. No creo como dice el salmantino que haya sido gracias al apoyo de Losantos.

'El dato que se oculta es que en 1 año y poquito, desde las últimas generales, Rajoy el perdedor le ha bailado 8 puntos al PSOE vencedor'

Con una recesión de caballo y con una alta abstención ¿qué esperabas?

Pero no es suficiente para pensar en una victoria pepera en el escenario de 2012, en plena recuperación económica y con la retina de la gente llena de imágenes de OBama y su amigo ZP juntos.

'¡Si es que no les votaron ni los que arrancaban carteles por ahí!'

¿Elentir fue a votar o se quedo en misa haciendo hechizos?

Demócrito dijo...

1.- En contra de lo comúnmente aceptado, UPyD no es votado de forma principal por moderados de derecha y ex votantes del PP. Su granero está en las clases medias urbanas jóvenes, formadas y bastante escépticas. Es decir, aquellas que basculaban hacia uno u otro partido en función de las circunstancias. Sólo hay que ver la distribución de su voto, concentrado en capitales de cierto tamaño.

2.- Más allá del bipartidismo imperfecto, este aspecto supone una dificultad para el crecimiento de UPyD, dado que en nuestro sistema electoral la circunscripción es provincial, y por tanto sobrerrepresenta el ámbito rural y de baja intensidad urbana.

3.- Los resultados son ambiguos. Por un lado no es una victoria muy amplia, dada la que está cayendo. Creo que el PP podría haber sacado más rédito de la situación económica, pero están jugando al desgaste y a que el PSOE caiga por sí sólo. El PSOE por su parte está jugando a que las cosas se resuelvan solitas, y dado que el palo no ha sido muy grande continuarán así. Pero als comparaciones con europa tendrían que hacer reflexionar a Zapatero: las victorias de líderes tan afectados como él por la crisis han sido amplias: Sarkozy y Merkel, especialmente. La agonía de Brown no es comparable, aún.

Anónimo dijo...

Ruby Marmolejo dijo...

Felicidades por los dos parlamentarios Isidoro.

--------------------------------

Burry, otra que no sabe contar.

Flor Bermúdez dijo...

Pírrica no tiene el significado que tú le das.

ElSalmantino dijo...

Los medios privados no tienen esa obligación en absoluto (al menos, no en un sentido ético, pues se deben a sus propietarios); y los públicos, que habrían de tenerla, no la ejercen por ser un imposible, por lo que no cabe más que su desaparición inmediata.

Y, precisamente por lo anterior, el apoyo de El Mundo o FJL a Rosa Díez es tan lógico como ético, pues responde a sus propios intereses.
No veo yo que Doña Rosa vaya a rechazar sus apoyos y nuestros votos.

Lo curioso en tu caso es que te fastidia que la apoyemos, pero al final niegas que tenga valor alguno ese apoyo, por otra parte objetivo, en cuanto a votos y valoración mediática.

Hasta tal punto es así que la propia Rosa Díez valora los resultados en las grandes ciudades y lo atribuye al acceso de sus habitantes a la información.
A continuación ella misma aclara qué medios son esos a los que se tiene acceso. Ergo...

Dicho lo cual, te sigues pasando de frenada. No se trata sólo de castigar a Rajoy y aupar a Esperanza (ojalá), sino de apoyar a un partido que tiene hoy en día más vetas liberales que el PP.
Si sigue por esa línea y, además, alguien como Aguirre está al frente del PP, habrá un poquito más de aire limpio.

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Anónimo dijo...

Hola a todos. Soy simpatizante y votante de UPyD y un admirador de Rosa Díez. No obstante creo que, desde la lealtad a un proyecto y a la presidenta del partido, debieran empezar a visualizarse muchas más caras del partido. No hay nadie omnipresente y son muchos los medios de comunicación escritos, digitales, radiofónicos y televisivos a los que hay que atender y a los que hay que dar una imagen de equipo.

Si nos fijamos bien, cualquier poartido político tiene infinidad de dirigentes con los que se presenta ante la sociedad. Veamos el caso de un partido relativamente minoritario como ERC. Ahí están, Carod, Ridao, Simó, Huguet, Puigcercós, Benach... Y me dejo alguno. Rosa Díez es limitada y no puede ser el único punto de referencia del partido.

Espero que la dirección del partido tome nota y vaya dando aire a otras personas. Repito que ello no es una crítica a la persona ni a las ideas de Rosa Díez. Sencillamente se trata de que el proyecto de UPyD no sea de corte caudillista y se diluya con la retirada de Rosa Díez. Que llegará. Nadie es eterno.

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